Trade Deals and Economic Strategies Shape Early Campaign Conversations
With the federal election campaign in full swing, the three main leadership contenders have spent the past three days on the East Coast and in Ontario, focusing on middle-class support while asserting Canada’s sovereignty and economic strength in the face of Trump’s threats.
The Rundown
Here is what has taken place since our last Ballot Brief.
Promises to cut taxes – Both Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and Liberal leader Mark Carney have promised to cut the income tax rate for the middle class.
Removing the GST – While the Liberals announced that they would eliminate it for first-time homebuyers on homes at or under $1 million, the Conservatives upped the ante to remove the tax on all new homes under $1.3 million.
Defending Canada – Carney announced a new plan to “rebuild, reinvest and rearm” Canada’s military.
Building Homes – NDP leader Jagmeet Singh unveiled a plan to build more affordable homes.
Energy East – Bloc Québéçois leader Yves-François Blanchet reaffirms his party’s commitment to block the pipeline going through the province, saying that the federal government cannot “put on the table a viable project.”
Inside Track
• Be prepared to see more candidates move in the week ahead as parties finalize their slates ahead of the April 7 deadline. After some surprise exits and comebacks (former Minister Sean Fraser will now run), expect big names to land in key ridings while long-shot spots get filled. And then wait for the scandals: party war rooms love to drop dirt on candidates after the deadline, when a candidate can no longer be pulled. The result can force parties to disavow a candidate mid-campaign and either choose to effectively surrender the riding or ride out the uncomfortable storm.
• Poilievre is leaning into a happier warrior persona to soften his image and reverse his negative perception polling beyond his base – smiles, jokes, and lots of family photo opportunities – while sticking to his messages sharply critical of the Liberals and the need for wholesale change in Canada. One catch? His campaign has shut out media from tagging along, unlike the other parties. This gives him control of the visuals and the reporters grumbling about access and authenticity. Will voters care? Maybe not, in a world where traditional media matters less than ever.
• Carney is off to a slower-paced start, reflecting his inexperience with the relentless all-day-every-day pace of a campaign. He’s emphasizing substance and calm leadership but still adjusting to the demands of soundbites and quick pivots, especially when asked to repeat lengthy answers “maintenant en français s’il vous plaît.” Time will tell if this is his natural tempo or if it’s a deliberate slow build to a crescendo in the final stretch.
• Singh continues to campaign in familiar, union-friendly territory, with a focus on issues like social housing. Some of his key messages in recent days have zeroed in on corporate landlords, accusing them of driving up rents and evicting tenants for profit. The leader is drawing a direct line to Carney through his former role at Brookfield Investments, a firm Singh recently linked to these practices.
• The story with legs this week is the latest report, by Robert Fife and Steve Chase in The Globe Mail, on alleged Indian foreign influence in Poilievre’s 2022 leadership campaign. The story makes no claim of knowledge or involvement by Poilievre or his team, but highlights his refusal to obtain a security clearance, leaving him unable to confront such threats based on classified intelligence. Meanwhile, Carney faced questions over his party’s removal of Nepean’s former MP Chandra Arya, known for ties to the Modi government. With Carney now running in that riding, this story is unlikely to date anytime soon.
South of the Border
• Canada has landed in the so-called “Dirty 15” tariff club as of April 2, marking a shift from broad global tariffs to a more targeted approach. The new approach narrows the impact but intensifies pressure on select jurisdictions, including Canada, Mexico, China, Japan, India, South Korea, the European Union, Brazil, Vietnam, Russia, and Australia. This move will be an addition to the current country-specific tariffs on autos, pharmaceuticals, semiconductor chips, and lumber.
• Canada’s response — a $125 billion package of reciprocal tariffs — is ready to be implemented immediately. It draws from a broader consultation list targeting more than $200 billion in U.S. imports.
• When asked Tuesday if he’d step in or head to Washington, Carney pointed to ongoing efforts by Ministers LeBlanc, Joly, and others who are actively engaged with their U.S. counterparts. Meanwhile, Canadian and Mexican officials told The Wall Street Journal they had been informed there was no path to avoid reciprocal tariffs ahead of April 2.
Hot… or Not?
Candidates – While no party yet has the full slate of 343 candidates in place, there is most definitely momentum. As of press time, the Conservatives had taken the lead, from the PPC, with the most candidates in place. The current tally is as follows:
Debate Debacle – The federal debates are locked in for April 16 (French) and 17 (English), but it was TVA’s Face-à-Face proposed debate that stole the headlines. After suggesting he would join, Carney pulled out, leading to the debate’s cancellation. The $75K per-party-event quickly turned into political theatre, with Bloc leader Blanchet and the other leaders criticizing the decision.
PM Power Play in Ottawa? – With Carney running in the riding of Nepean, a riding adjacent to Poilievre’s riding of Carleton, this will be the first time since John A. Macdonald was elected in 1882 that the prime minister will come from an Ottawa riding. Macdonald also came from the riding of Carleton.
All About the Facts – Working to combat mis- and disinformation in this election, Elections Canada has created a resource for Canadians: “ElectoFacts helps Canadian electors easily check whether information about elections is true or not. It also informs electors about how federal elections are run and about the safeguards that protect them.”
Protecting the Election – The Clerk of the Privy Council issued a statement highlighting the importance of safeguarding democratic institutions.
Bluesky Bonus
Principal Susan Smith joined CBC Newsworld to unpack the buzz around Carney, from issues of national security and blind trusts to how he might handle a second round with President Trump.
Vice-President Jordan Paquet joined CPAC’s Primetime Politics panel to share his insights on foreign interference and his observations from the campaign trail since the election began.
Today’s Bluesky Ballot Brief was brought to you by the team of Stuart McCarthy, Geoff Turner, Janice Nicholson, Alyson Fair, Manuela Boeira, and Nolan Pratt.
