Welcome to Tariff Day 2.0!
As the day begins, the campaign enters a pivotal moment. Canada and its global allies are bracing for another round of trade tensions. Prime Minister Mark Carney and provincial/territorial leaders are prepared to push back, setting the stage for fresh debates on the country’s economic strategy. Expected to dominate the campaign conversation in the coming days.
The Rundown
Since our last Ballot Brief, the party leaders have been busy rolling out new platform planks, each addressing key issues in the campaign. Here’s a look at the major announcements shaping the race so far.
Liberal Initiatives: The Liberals are stepping up their focus on housing and affordability. They’ve introduced a housing plan to build 500,000 homes a year to cut costs, create jobs, and revive the building sector. With the carbon tax gone, Carney is also promising tax cuts, more dental care.
Poilievre’s Plans – Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is sharpening his campaign focus on energy, growth, and fairness. He’s pitching a “Canada First” National Energy Corridor and backing industry recommendations to cut U.S. dependence and boost the economy. In Ontario, he announced a Reinvestment Tax Cut for capital gains and pledged to end tax breaks for luxury jets while supporting travelling trades workers with full expense deductions. Poilievre also promised to scrap the automatic Liberal alcohol tax hikes, rolling back rates to 2017 levels to lower costs for Canadians and support local businesses.
Singh’s Solutions: NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is focusing on affordability, climate action, and public health. His plan cuts oil subsidies, lowers energy bills, and supports union jobs while protecting Canadians from trade shocks. He’s backing low-interest mortgages for first-time buyers, pledging to cap grocery prices, and taxing big grocers’ windfall profits. Singh also vows to block U.S.-style health privatization and protect Canada’s public system.
Green Goals: Green Party co-leaders Jonathan Pedneault and Elizabeth May are spotlighting resilience and culture. They’ve proposed a 120,000-strong National Civil Defence Corps to boost emergency readiness and address climate and infrastructure challenges. They’re also pushing for renewed investment in arts and media, including restoring arts funding and protecting public broadcasting to support local talent and cultural diversity.
Quebec Priorities: Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet is putting Quebec first with proposals to boost transit, support seniors and back Quebec’s aerospace sector in the wake of the tariff threat. He’s calling for doubled federal investment in public transportation, with a focus on local economic benefits. The Bloc is also reaffirming its support for retirees with plans to raise the old age pension, offer tax incentives, and expand home care.
Inside Track
- As we brace for another wave of tariffs, thunder from the Oval Office will likely have the auto sector feeling the first shock, impacting OEM line jobs and SME order books right away. Expect the federal government’s reciprocal response to be flexible, matching the unpredictability from the president. Bluesky clients can expect a full analysis in our next exclusive, once details are confirmed.
- Weekend headlines revealed deep frustration within Conservative ranks, with calls for the campaign to make a complete pivot to the U.S. threat and Trump backlash. Poilievre deflected, as some warn that engaging with Trump plays into Liberals’ hands. With affordability still the top issue, especially with the under-50 demographic, expect the Conservatives to double down there.
- Carney will again step into full prime minister mode this week, authorizing counter-tariffs, worker support, and calling up the White House. Meanwhile, fallout from the Paul Chiang controversy lingers, with critics pointing to a delayed decision that cost time and credibility. The Liberals will also work to keep focus on Monday’s major housing announcement, reannouncing it yesterday in Winnipeg to stay ahead of the affordability front.
- Poilievre and the Conservatives are sticking to the “Canada First” playbook aimed at boosting economic resilience and reducing U.S. trade reliance in light of the escalating tariff dispute. In a Toronto keynote speech in Toronto today, he’s expected to outline how a CPC government would counter President Trump’s trade actions. The leader’s coast-to-coast blitz is drawing large crowds, and the campaign will continue its Ontario swing this week, rallying in Kingston on Wednesday before returning to the GTA.
- Jagmeet Singh kicked off week two of the campaign in Burnaby with a recalibrated message: “elect enough” New Democrats to hold meaningful negotiating power in Parliament. With polls showing him trailing, even in his riding, Singh is relying on long-time incumbents and ground-game optimism to rally support on health care, affordability, and social programs for all Canadians.
South of the Border
As Canadians and Americans hold their breath on the next tariff announcements, President Trump may again be distracted this week by domestic developments:
- U.S. Senate Pushback: A vote on a bipartisan bill to limit Trump’s tariff powers, amid backlash over a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian auto parts, is in the Senate. Though previous efforts to curb Trump’s tariff authority have failed, this vote signals rising congressional angst over the administration’s protectionist posture.
- Booker Stand: In a record-breaking filibuster, Democratic Senator Cory Booker condemned the actions of the Trump administration as a threat to the American people and American democracy. While focused on domestic issues, he also warned of the fallout from Trump’s trade and foreign policies, including tariffs against allies like Canada.
- Tariff Concerns Rise: New U.S. polls show growing voter anxiety and wariness with Trump’s tariff agenda and tariffs on Canada. Consumer confidence is dipping, and a majority of Americans consider Canada “friendly.” As Americans argue for more action on prices, rather than on tariffs, these signals from the national voter base could be the one trigger to eventually shift the White House’s current approach.
Hot… or Not?
New Collectible? Canada Proud, a self-defined “grassroots group of Canadians working to defeat Mark Carney”, unveiled an attack ad/product that is SO good, political observers of all stripes are thinking this is “one of the best things so far this campaign.” FYI – it’s not for sale, but we think it should be!
Behaving Badly 3.0: This all comes after Liberal candidate Paul Chiang finally bowed out of the campaign late Monday evening after backlash over a joke suggesting a Conservative rival could be turned over to the Chinese government for a bounty. Though Carney accepted Chiang’s apology, opponent Joe Tay did not and is seeking personal protection. The RCMP is now investigating. Bad behaviour, it seems, crosses party lines.
The Kids are All Right: Canadians were impressed by the grace and poise of Ella Grace Trudeau and Cleo Carney during the Liberal Leadership last month. Now we are meeting a younger generation through the adorable interactions with Dani and Anhad Singh, and Valentina and Cruz Poilievre. They’ve made campaign appearances and been part of the narrative of their fathers’ campaigns, showing a softer side of these titans.
“Misfire!” On a lighter side, Poilievre had a challenge in the kitchen as he dropped his Canada First pizza at a campaign stop in Winnipeg. Some are musing that it shows a lack of real-world job experience outside of the House of Commons, but at least nobody is comparing it to the catastrophic football fumble by then Conservative leader Robert Stanfield on the 1974 campaign trail.
Bluesky Bonus
Vice-President Jordan Paquet joined CPAC’s PrimeTime Politics panel to weigh in on the Paul Chiang controversy, ongoing Conservative in-fighting, and the NDP’s campaign struggles amid plunging polling numbers.
You can also tune in to hear Jordan on Now You Know with Rob Snow today at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
Behind the Ballot is back tomorrow at noon EDT — live and in action.
This time, Bluesky VP Jordan Paquet teams up with veteran journalist Teresa Wright to dig into “the Air War”– how media, messaging, and mobilization are shaping the race to 2025.
It’s politics, strategy, and sharp insights over your lunch break. Don’t miss it.
Register now and join us tomorrow!
