Party Leaders hit the trail as tight race, trade tensions loom
Canada’s 45th general election is officially on. With the writs issued yesterday, party leaders wasted no time boarding planes, buses and trains to hit the ground running in this 37-day sprint. Voters head to the polls on Monday, April 28, with advance voting set for April 18 to 21. In the days ahead, expect the parties to sharpen their messages, frame the ballot question, and jostle for early momentum.
The Rundown
- Trade Tensions Front and Centre: The escalating trade war with the U.S. is shaping campaign narratives, particularly for the Liberals and Conservatives.
- Short Campaign, Fast Moves: With a compressed timeline, expect a flurry of headline-grabbing announcements early, as parties look to lock in momentum.
- Star Candidates Emerging: Parties continue to recruit high-profile candidates, including Liberals Evan Solomon and Nathalie Provost, and Conservatives Hugh Stevenson and Roman Baber.
- Target Regions Revealed: Leaders’ early stops signal key battlegrounds — Ontario, Quebec, and Newfoundland — where they’re playing offence or defence.
- Polling Snapshot: 338Canada.ca projects a tight race in terms of the national vote with the Liberals currently at 39 per cent and Conservatives at 37 per cent. The vote distribution skews seat projections with Liberals somewhere between 150 to 203 seats, and Conservatives in a range of 107 to 172 seats…for now.
Source: 338Canada.ca
The Inside Track
As of March 23, the Conservatives have nominated 270 candidates, the Liberals 222, and the NDP 235, with dozens more expected in the days ahead. All nominations must be finalized 21 days before election day.
With the writs issued, the prime minister and cabinet remain in office and empowered to act in urgent or extraordinary situations — of which there are many — short of passing legislation. Ministers LeBlanc, Joly, Champagne and McGuinty are expected to stay on standby, prepared to pivot from the campaign to official duties as needed, particularly in response to developments out of Washington.
Under new Prime Minister Mark Carney’s leadership, the Liberals are framing their campaign around unity, economic stewardship, and national sovereignty, set against the backdrop of an escalating trade war and from President Trump’s annexation rhetoric. Their slogan, “Canada Strong,” reinforces Carney’s “Time to Build” pitch: a steady, forward-looking plan to manage Trump’s impact while reshaping Canada’s economy for the future.
Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are framing the election as a fight to restore economic freedom, shrink government, and cut taxes. Their campaign, “Canada First — For A Change,” draws energy from long-standing discontent with the Trudeau government, tapping into frustrations about affordability, bureaucracy, and national direction. Core themes like “Axe the Tax,” “Build the Homes,” “Fix the Budget” and “Stop the Crime” anchor their pitch, alongside a vow to “stand up to Donald Trump” with a tough, uncompromising posture.
Under Jagmeet Singh’s leadership, the NDP is focusing its message on health care, inequality, and affordability, positioning itself as the voice of working Canadians and underrepresented communities. The campaign slogan, “In it for you,” underscores the party’s commitment to public service over special interests.
Every party seeks to define the ballot question – a clear choice to rally voters. This time, the question isn’t negotiable. It’s no longer about Trudeau’s legacy, but about which leader can manage Trump’s threats and steer Canada’s economy forward. Both Liberals and Conservatives will claim they have the answer.
This campaign will be hard-hitting. Parties may strike patriotic notes, but their attacks will be personal and relentless. In a tight race, undermining opponents is as crucial as winning over voters. Expect sharp negative tactics from parties, third-party groups, and alt-media — including attacks on character and leadership. Conservatives will double down on linking economic frustration and fatigue to Carney and the Trudeau legacy, though Carney’s economic credentials and steady demeanour may dull the impact.
In the coming days, Team Bluesky will be watching for early signals of where party leaders are concentrating their efforts — revealing whether they’re playing offence or defence in key regions and ridings. Opening rallies and events will offer insight into crowd enthusiasm, media scrutiny, and how well leaders are performing, providing an early gauge of whether adjustments to messaging or style may be needed.
This week, each campaign will be vying for attention and momentum, so expect major announcements aimed at broad public appeal, not just targeted stakeholders. Parties will fine-tune their messaging later, as internal polling and local dynamics reveal key areas of strength or vulnerability.
South of the Border
Tensions between Canada and the United States have escalated. U.S. tariffs remain in place on Canadian aluminum, steel and critical minerals, with another global round set for April 2. In response, Canada imposed a 25 per cent tariff on $30 billion in U.S. goods and is preparing a second round targeting another $125 billion. Despite broad Canadian opposition, President Trump and allies continue to float the “51st state” idea – rhetoric that has sharpened voter sentiment heading into the campaign.
Trump has waded directly into the election. In a recent interview, he dismissed Poilievre – “I don’t know him, but he said negative things” – and added, “I’d rather deal with a liberal than a conservative.” He also mused, “I love Canada … but frankly, it might be better if they were part of the U.S.” The remarks have intensified tensions and handed party leaders new material to react to — and leverage for their purposes — as the campaign begins.
Party leaders responded quickly. In his speech from Rideau Hall, Carney called Trump’s actions “the most significant crisis of our lifetimes,” saying Canadians are “getting over the shock” but must remember “we have to look after ourselves and we have to look out for each other.” He accused Trump of “attacking Canadian families, workers and businesses,” and rejected annexation: “Canada never, ever will be part of America.”
In launching his campaign, Poilievre echoed that “Canada will never be the 51st state” and said Canada must stand up to Trump “from a position of strength.” He blamed the Liberals for failing to defend Canadian jobs and sovereignty. Asked about Trump, he said, “The Canadian prime minister shouldn’t be reacting to every comment from every foreign politician,” and argued Canada should be “strong enough to stand up to anyone.” On tariffs, he promised to respond “strategically” and make Canada “unbeatable — so we’re not at anyone’s mercy.”
In a direct shot at Trump’s empowerment of Elon Musk, Tesla is also facing backlash. Protests and boycotts have emerged, and provinces like Nova Scotia have pulled the automaker from EV rebate programs. The response follows reports of irregularities that allegedly wiped-out federal incentive funds, sparking concern of malfeasance.
With 10 days until the April 2 tariff round, attention remains fixed on cross-border fallout. Barring new interventions from Trump or the MAGA orbit, Canada’s response to the tariffs will be the next major flashpoint.
Hot… and Not?
Elbows Up! – Comedian Mike Myers joined Mark Carney on the ice in a new patriotic ad.
Softer Side of Poilievre? – Anaida Poilievre pens a personal post ahead of the campaign and the Conservative leader introduces the stuffed toy penguin his son Cruz brought to the launch.
Source: x.com/PierrePoilievre
On the Trail
The leaders’ choice of where to launch their campaigns signalled the key regions where each party knows it must connect with voters.
Carney and the Liberals
Just nine days after his swearing-in, the Liberal leader visited the governor general, dissolving parliament and kicking off the election. He spoke with reporters outside Rideau Hall and then headed to St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador. This is the first general election campaign for the leader.
Carney remains in Newfoundland today, where he will spend the morning with residents in Gander, speaking at noon local time there.
Poilievre and the Conservatives
While Poilievre has been a Conservative since 2004, this is the first election as party leader. Alongside his family and some candidates, he kicked off his campaign on the Gatineau side of the Ottawa River with Parliament Hill in the background before the writs were issued. He then went to his Carleton riding and Toronto, where his campaign will spend the next couple of days in the GTA/Hamilton area before heading to B.C.
Today, Poilievre will be in the battleground riding of Brampton, holding a press conference at 10 a.m. ET.
Singh and the NDP
This marks the third election for the New Democratic Party leader, who launched his campaign in Ottawa before heading to Montreal. With 24 seats in the House of Commons and a recent slump in the polls, the party faces the challenge of persuading voters that they are the ones best positioned to hold the government to account.
Singh begins today in Montreal with an announcement at 9:45 a.m. ET then hits the road – making a quick whistle-stop in Toronto before the day’s end.
Blanchet and the Bloc Québécois
As the Bloc leader told reporters yesterday in Montreal, he was responding to the writs being issued and will launch his campaign today in Québec City, framing himself and his party as defenders of Québec’s interests in the face of threats posed by the U.S. president.
Today, the Bloc Québécois hits the ground running, unveiling their campaign buses and sharpening their core message: defending Québec’s interests against American threats.
Pedneault, May and the Greens
The Green Party launched their campaign in Montreal, yesterday morning, promoting a Team Canada approach and encouraging voter participation. With only two seats in the House of Commons, co-Leader Pedneault the supposed face of the Greens, without a seat or much of a national profile, the party faces an uphill battle but is aiming to grow its national presence and influence in Parliament.
Both leaders will be campaigning in their ridings today.
Bluesky Bonus
Throughout the election, Team Bluesky will be Behind the Ballot – a live, lunchtime podcast every Thursday with guests that will help us break down the key issues being discussed during the campaign. So, keep an eye here for more details.
You can now expect to receive this newsletter on Wednesday and Saturday at 7 a.m. each week of the campaign. Please feel free to share our insights and analysis with your colleagues and friends.
Today’s Bluesky Ballot Brief was brought to you by the team of Geoff Turner, Janice Nicholson, Jordan Paquet, Alyson Fair, Angelo Bakoulas, Manuela Boeira and Stuart McCarthy.
